NSITES CAPITALMODULE 10FORECASTINGSESSION ID A4F7-21B9
MODULE 09 · FORECASTING
Royalty Projection & Scenario Engine
Base / Upside / Downside scenarios across streaming growth, seasonal, tour catalysts, viral acceleration, and concentration risk.
Q4 BASE+6.2% YoY
$5.81M
Q4 UPSIDE+18.9%
$6.51M
Q4 DOWNSIDE-6.2%
$5.12M
FY26 PROJMODEL · CI ±9%
$24.40M
ROYALTY FORECAST · 8M FORWARD
ACTUAL · BASE · UPSIDE · DOWNSIDEDRIVERS
ATTRIBUTION| DRIVER | CONTRIBUTION | CONFIDENCE | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|
| Streaming organic growth | +$382K | 92% | Editorial playlist additions Q3·Q4 |
| Tour catalyst (NOVA NA Q1) | +$210K | 78% | 32-city US run · catalog uplift modeled at 12% |
| Sync pipeline closes | +$140K | 65% | 3 deals at LOI · 1 closed Q4 |
| Mechanical recovery | +$74K | 88% | Drift correction CTR-1064 |
| Concentration risk drag | −$110K | 70% | Midnight Avenue dispute resolution timing |
| Seasonal Q1 softness | −$185K | 85% | Historical 4.8% MoM decline Jan·Feb |
AI COMMENTARY
▸ Q4 base case projects $5.81M ±8% on continued streaming growth and recovery of CTR-1064 mechanical drift. Upside scenario assumes Nova Rhythm tour catalyst materializes (modeled +$210K) and 2 sync pipeline closes (+$140K).
▸ Downside risk driven primarily by Midnight Avenue dispute extension into FY26 and Spotify NA payout normalization timing. Recommend reserving $410K against contested receivables.
▸ FY26 trajectory $24.4M assumes flat per-stream rates, 8% volume growth, and Luna Theory recoupment completion by Q2. Sensitivity: every 1¢ shift in mechanical = ±$112K annualized.